29 June 1999

Mr. Chairman and Distinguished Committee Members:

I am privileged to submit this testimony on behalf of the Seismological Society of America, an international scientific society devoted to the advancement of earthquake science and public safety.

Earthquake risk is truly a national problem. In the last 150 years 48 states have experienced some sort of earthquake damage, and today more than 75 million Americans live in metropolitan areas that are subject to high or moderate earthquake risk. Further, these at-risk regions are a major part of the American economic engine. Currently the annualized loss from earthquakes is $4.4 billion, although a repeat of some historic earthquakes, such as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, has been estimated to cause up to $500 billion damage.

When Congress authorized the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act in 1977, there was a commitment made to reducing America's exposure to this natural disaster. Although public concern about earthquakes may be less intense between major U.S. earthquakes, earthquake scientists and policy makers must take a larger--and longer--view. We must stay focused on learning all that we can about the Earth and how to mitigate its hazards. This requires both a sustained research effort and a modern facility for collecting relevant data.

This committee has shown its willingness to see the larger picture. Two years ago the subcommittee initiated authorization for a comprehensive review of the state of earthquake hazard monitoring in the United States. This review was led by the U.S. Geological Survey and involved all of the major governmental agencies, universities, and private-sector organizations involved in seismic monitoring.

Currently there are multiple seismic networks--mostly inadequate and antiquated. The basic monitoring stations are inadequate in design and function. Most were installed in the 1970's. The older instruments were designed to locate earthquakes (after the data were processed manually). Modern digital equipment has the potential to process data automatically, not only locating earthquakes but creating maps of shaking within minutes of an earthquake. These rapid-response maps show the areas where emergency response needs are the greatest. The shaking data provide information for zoning and engineering decisions.

The report authorized by this committee, "An Assessment of Seismic Monitoring in the United States: Requirement for a National Seismic System", sets forth the need for an Advanced National Seismic Monitoring and Research System (ANSMRS). The proposed ANSMRS would integrate, standardize, and modernize the seismic monitoring networks. This report addresses the fundamental needs of science, engineering, and emergency response. The ANSMRS reflects the basic principle that seismic hazard monitoring is an integrated effort that, if done correctly, eliminates duplication of effort while providing the highest quality data that serve multiple purposes. The infrastructure for seismology is used in many ways. Indeed, the ANSMRS will not only provide the facility for research on reducing earthquake hazards but will also serve as a vital part of the telescope being built to investigate the interior of the Earth (project Earthscope) and will be used in monitoring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

The Seismological Society of America strongly urges Congress to follow through by authorizing funds to implement the plan detailed in the National Seismic System report. We must act now. We do not know when the next destructive earthquake will strike. The data that are lost because we are not prepared can never be recovered. If the modern instrumentation is not in place, we will have lost the opportunity to learn how we might prepare ourselves for the next inevitable destructive earthquake.

The Seismological Society of America is very aware that a decade of level funding for the U.S. Geological Survey has been eroded by inflation to such a degree that its internal program on earthquake hazard mitigation is woefully understaffed. Similarly, its support of its external grants program has been significantly reduced. The U.S. Geological Survey is the leading governmental research agency on earthquake hazards and mitigation. Its leadership role cannot be underestimated. It has been one of the strongest National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) pillars on which many research programs have been founded. Unless the erosion of manpower in the U.S. Geological Survey's earthquake hazards program is reversed, there will be severe limitations in our ability to mitigate seismic hazards.

Because the NEHRP program is at such a critical stage, we propose the following actions be taken:

1. Congress authorize immediate NEHRP funding for the implementation of the National Seismic System within a period of no less than five years. This will ensure that this nation is doing everything possible to learn what it can from each and every destructive earthquake in the U.S. This modernization will require $171 million for capital equipment with annual operational costs of approximately $35 million per year.
2. Congress authorize NEHRP funding for the formation of an external advisory board for the U.S Geological Survey NEHRP program. While the U.S. Geological Survey is the primary institution for overseeing seismic monitoring, the effort is a collaboration involving other governmental agencies, universities, and private-sector organizations. Similarly, its internal and external research programs affect a much broader community of scientists and engineers. This cost is expected to be less than $100,000 per year.
3. Congress authorize NEHRP funding to increase the base budget of the U.S. Geological Survey NEHRP program by 10% for each of the next five years. This will allow the U.S. Geological Survey to reverse its current downward trend in staffing and infuse its research program with earthquake scientists and engineers who want to make the U.S. a safer place with regard to earthquakes.
4. Congress authorize NEHRP funding to increase the U.S. Geological Survey's external grants and cooperative agreements program by at least $2 million over the current funding level for each of the next five years. Hazard mitigation is a joint effort of many different universities, private-sector research groups, and the U.S. Geological Survey. At a time when even moderate earthquakes can cause economic losses of more than $100 million (e.g., 1986 Whittier Narrows earthquake, Los Angeles) and destructive earthquakes can cause losses of tens of billion of dollars (1994 Northridge earthquake), cutting back on fundamental research is "penny wise and pound foolish." The newly engineered National Seismic System will provide a quantum jump in data quality and quantity that must be analyzed and interpreted.

I have just returned from investigating the recent earthquake in Mexico. I was reminded again of the tremendous cost of earthquakes. The Mexican earthquake was moderate in size, about the same magnitude as the 1994 Northridge earthquake, but nearly 30 million people felt the earthquake, and the news media have documented the extraordinary human tragedy. In the contiguous 48 states we have had three similar-sized earthquakes in the last decade, and the total economic loss has been about $50 billion. However, we have been extremely lucky: The earthquakes occurred on holidays or when the population was at minimum risk. This luck has to run out eventually, and we need to be prepared. Earthquakes are a national problem. The economic consequences are staggering and affect the entire nation. The costs, both personal and economic, affect us all.

I sincerely thank you for giving me this opportunity to provide our thoughts on earthquake hazard mitigation--an issue that profoundly affects everyone.